The third quarter of 2025 showed consistency in the volume of closings on the residential side of Lamorinda real estate. The recent softening of interest rates did not help increase the number of closings over the last several months due to a continued lack of supply.

    Per Contra Costa Association of Realtors statistics reported from July 1 through Sept. 30, 71 single-family homes closed in Lafayette, which was consistent with the 69 in the year ago quarter and near the 66 that closed in the third quarter of 2023.
  
    Sales prices ranged from $715,000 to $7 million. The average number of days on market was 27 – identical to one year ago. The average sales price was $2,218,412 – down from a year ago when it was $2,339,175, and similar to 3Q 2023 when it was $2,198,109. In 2022 it was $2,273,646. In 2021 it was $2,067,747.
 
    In Moraga, the number of single-family closings was 27, down from a year ago, at 31. Prices ranged from $1.249 million to $2.975 million.  The average sales price was down at $1,790,913. A year ago, it was $1,922,527 and in 2023 it was $2,094,182.  It was $1,890,272 in 2022. In 2021 it was $1,993,792. The average marketing time was 41 days, up from 27 days a year ago.

    In Orinda, the number of single-family closings rose to 64, nearly the same as the 63 last year. Sales prices ranged from $1.025 million to $4.625 million with an average price of $2,031,605. In the same quarter a year ago it was $2,120,476.  In the third quarter of 2023, it was $2,265,458 – close to 3Q2022 when it was $2,243,571. It took an average of 33 days to expose a home to the market this last quarter.  One year ago, it took 26 days.

    In the third quarter of this year, on an average price per square foot basis, Lafayette detached single-family homes sold at $851.31 – slightly higher than $834.12 one year ago. Moraga homes sold for $787.07 which was near a year ago when it was $780.77.   In Orinda it was $755.76. Last summer it was $791.24.

    In the area of list price versus sales price, in Lafayette, the average sales price was 101.1% of the final asking price, similar to 102% of the final asking price in this quarter of 2024. In Moraga, it was 99.1% of asking and in Orinda it was 99.3% of the final asking price.  A year ago, it was just over 102%.

    This is likely a factor of sellers realizing that they needed to be more realistic in pricing and buyers understanding that there were fewer buyers to compete with so they were not as aggressive in their offers.

    On the Oakland/Berkeley side of the hills, many agents have still been asking far below the market value of homes in order to generate the multiple offers and the sales prices well above asking.  Often this has failed to work so they raise the asking price and call the list price “Transparent.” This phenomenon (sometimes knows as “Teaser Pricing”) is not as prevalent in Lamorinda.

    In Lafayette, 37 of the 71 sales sold at or above the final listing price. A year ago, it was 41 of the 69. In Moraga, 11 of the 27 sales sold at or above asking. A year ago, it was 14 of the 31 sold. In Orinda it was 32 of the 64 and a year ago it was 35 of 63.

    In the condominium/town home category, Lafayette had six closings reported to the MLS. They were priced from $699,000 to $1.710 million. Moraga had 24, up from 13 a year ago. Sales prices ranged from $433,000 to $1.579 million. Orinda had no reported sales in the MLS in the quarter, other than single family homes.

    As of Oct. 9, there were 50 pending sales in the three communities combined. A year ago, there were 58 pending sales per the MLS.  The asking prices for the pending single family detached homes range from $925,000 to $7.9 million. It should be noted that there are no “Potential Short Sales” or foreclosures that are currently pending, although this trend may change.

    It is interesting to note that of the 50 pending sales in the area, 12 received acceptable offers in the first eight days of October.  That is an average of over one per day.  Usually many of the sales are completed prior to the start of school. Depending upon how many of the homes are being purchased by families with children who are new to Lamorinda, it may impact certain grades at the elementary level.

    Inventory, however, is really rising.  When looking at the available homes of all types in Lamorinda, there are 161 homes on the market.  At this time in 2024 there were 123.  In Lafayette there are 67 homes on the market as of Oct. 8 and there were 52 at this time one year ago.  This new number does include some new construction condominiums.

    In Moraga, buyers have their choice of 37 properties, up from the 32 properties a year ago. 

    Orinda inventory has increased to 56 currently available, up from 39 one year ago. 

    Current asking prices range from $450,000 for a Moraga condo to $6.995 million for a Lafayette property.

    At the high end, 18 homes closed above $3 million in the three communities combined during the quarter – down from 22 one year ago.
    There are 28 currently available above this amount, versus 30 a year ago.

    You also have a lot of homeowners who refinanced when rates were very low who are reluctant to sell their homes because they do not want to have to give up this “cheap money” that they may have at 3% or less to go and buy something and have to pay 6% or more.  This will help limit supply.

    And, some buyers are in the market to buy anything, regardless of the interest rates. They feel that if rates fall, two things will happen: more buyers will be back in the buyer pool and if rates go down, they will just refinance again.

    We are still seeing Oakland, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Peninsula agents representing buyers in their purchase of Lamorinda homes.  They are coming from higher priced areas and have more available equity to use in Lamorinda.

    Corporate relocation has also increased as more workers who were working remotely from their old locations are now moving to work in the destination offices.