The third quarter of 2026 showed consistency in the volume of closings on the residential side of Lamorinda real estate.  The recent increase in interest rates did not decrease the number closings over the last several months due to a continued lack of supply.

    Per Contra Costa Association of Realtors statistics reported from July 1 through Sept. 30, 84 single-family homes closed in Lafayette which was an increase over the 71 in the year ago quarter and above the 69 that closed in the third quarter of 2024.  Sales prices ranged from $830,000 to $4.8 million.

       The average number of days on market was 22, which was down from a year ago when it was 27. The average sales price was $2,112,426 – a drop from the $2,218,412 a year ago and also below 3Q 2024 when it was $2,339,175, but similar to 3Q 2023 when it was $2,198,109. 

    In Moraga, the number of single-family closings was 29, consistent with the last couple of years when it was 27 in 2025 and 31 in 2024.  Prices ranged from $1.25 million to $3.15 million.  The average sales price was up to $1,873,294 up from $1,790,913 in 3Q 2025. In 2024 it was $1,922,527 and in 2023 it was $2,094,182.  The average marketing time was 22 days, down from 41 days a year ago.

    In Orinda, the number of single-family closings dropped to 53, below the 64 in last year’s same quarter. Sales prices ranged from $795,000 to $9.95 million with an average price of $2,378,031. In the same quarter a year ago it was $2,031,605.  In the same quarter in 2024 it was $2,120,476, and in the third quarter of 2023, it was $2,265,458. It took an average of 29 days to expose a home to the market this last quarter.  One year ago, it took 33 days.

    In the third quarter of this year, on an average price per square foot basis, Lafayette detached single-family homes sold at $835.62, slightly lower than the $851.31 one year ago.  Moraga homes sold for $817.84 which was near a year ago when it was $787.07.  In Orinda it was $746.18.  Last summer it was $755.76.

    In the area of list price versus sales price, in Lafayette, the average sales price was 101% of the final asking price. It was the same as the final asking price in this quarter of 2025. In Moraga, it was 102.9% of asking and in Orinda it was 98.5% of the final asking price.  A year ago, it was 99.3%.

    This is likely a factor of a rise in interest rates and of sellers realizing that they needed to be more realistic in pricing and buyers understanding that there were fewer buyers to compete with so they were not as aggressive in their offers.

    On the Oakland/Berkeley side of the hills, many agents have still been asking far below the market value of homes in order to generate the multiple offers and the sales prices well above asking.  Sometimes this has failed to work so they raise the asking price and call the list price “Transparent.” This phenomenon (sometimes known as “Teaser Pricing”) is not as prevalent in Lamorinda.  

    For example, the average sales price in Piedmont from July through September was about 25% above the asking price.  Several sold for more than $1 million above asking.  Only three of the 30 closings sold below the asking price.  

    In Lafayette, 52 of the 84 sales sold at or above the final listing price. In Moraga, 18 of the 29 sales sold at or above asking. A year ago, it was 11 of the 27 sold.  In Orinda it was 26 of the 53 and a year ago it was 32 of 64.

    In the condominium/town home category, Lafayette had seven closings reported to the MLS.  They were priced from $499,000 to $2.2 million. Moraga had 11, down from 24 a year ago.  Sales prices ranged from $375,000 to $1,410,250. Orinda had three reported sales in the MLS in the quarter between $499,900 and $1.375 million.

    As of Oct. 6, there were 47 pending sales in the three communities combined. A year ago, there were 50 pending sales per the MLS.  The asking prices for the pending single family detached homes range from $350,000 to $3.35 million. There are no “Potential Short Sales” or foreclosures that are currently pending, although this trend may change.

    It is interesting to note that of the 47 pending sales in the area, seven received acceptable offers in the first six days of October.  That is an average of about one per day.  Usually many of the sales are completed prior to the start of school.  Depending upon how many of the homes are being purchased by families with children who are new to Lamorinda, it may impact certain grades at the elementary level.

    Inventory has fallen.  When looking at the available homes off all types in Lamorinda, there are 115 homes on the market.  At this time in 2025 there were 161.  In Lafayette there are 49 homes on the market as of Oct. 6 and there were 67 at this time one year ago.  This new number does not include some new construction condominiums unless they are in the MLS.

    In Moraga buyers have their choice of 33 properties, down from the 37 properties a year ago. 

    Orinda inventory has decreased to 33 currently available down from 56 one year ago. 

    Current asking prices range from $320,000 for a Moraga condo to $12 million for a Lafayette property. At the high end, 23 homes closed above $3 million in the three communities combined during the quarter – up from 18 one year ago.

    There are 18 currently available above this amount, versus 28 a year ago.

    You also have a lot of homeowners who refinanced when rates were very low that are reluctant to sell their homes because they do not want to have to give up this “cheap money” that they may have at 3% or less to go and buy something and have to pay 7% or more.  This will help limit supply.

    And, some buyers are in the market to buy anything, regardless of the interest rates.  They feel that if rates fall, two things will happen: More buyers will be back in the buyer pool and if rates go down, they will just refinance again.

    We are still seeing Oakland, San Francisco, Silicon Valley, and Peninsula agents representing buyers in their purchase of Lamorinda homes.  They are coming from higher priced areas and have more available equity to use in Lamorinda.

    Corporate relocation has also increased as more workers who were working remotely from their old locations are now moving to work in the destination offices.